Surging ETFs take a bite out of mutual fund flows

Growth rate unmatched by any other product

 

By Frederick P. Gabriel Jr.

 

As if a growling bear market isn’t enough, mutual funds have another beast breathing down their necks — exchange-traded funds.

 

After eight years of relative obscurity and so-so asset growth, ETFs are suddenly causing heads to swivel in the $7 trillion mutual fund industry. ETFs issued a net $26.8 billion of new shares during the fourth quarter, nearly as much as the $29.6 billion that went into mutual funds.

 

At the end of January, the combined assets of the nation’s ETFs totaled $72.1 billion, a 10% increase from the level a month earlier. That’s on top of last year’s doubling of ETF assets.

 

Assets in the nation’s 4,415 stock mutual funds, meanwhile, dropped 2% in 2000 and climbed 3.3% in January, according to the Investment Company Institute, a mutual fund trade group in Washington.

 

Gavin Quill, an analyst at Financial Research Corp. in Boston, says ETFs are on track to reach $500 billion in assets by 2007, maybe sooner. “FRC is not aware of any other major financial product category that came close to matching the asset growth rate of exchange-traded funds in 2000,” he says.

 

“If S&P 500 index funds were the most notable success story from 1996 to 1999, and technology funds were the talk of the industry in 1998 to 1999, then their headline--grabbing successors in 2000 were probably the index-based exchange-traded funds.”

 

A HYBRID INVESTMENT

 

An ETF is essentially the low-cost love child of a stock and an index mutual fund. Like index mutual funds, ETFs invest in baskets of stocks that mirror a particular index. But, like stocks, they are traded on stock exchanges at prices determined by the market.

 

Spiders — the oldest ETFs, dating to 1993 — track the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index. Diamonds track the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Qubes follow the top 100 stocks of the Nasdaq Composite Index.

 

To illustrate the popularity of ETFs, about $609 billion worth of Qubes was traded in 2000. According to Lipper Inc., that equals the combined value of trades last year in the stocks of General Electric Co., General Motors Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Merck & Co. Inc., Philip Morris Cos. Inc., DuPont, Sears Roebuck & Co. and Safeway Inc.

 

It took index mutual funds a little more than 24 years to reach $70 billion in assets. ETFs, however, hit that mark in just seven years. “These things have come on quite strong, probably stronger than most people expected,” says Don Cassidy, senior research analyst at Lipper, the New York fund tracker.

 

While ETFs have yet to catch on with do-it-yourselfers, they are popular among institutional investors, who like them as a hedging vehicle or as a means of equitizing cash or maintaining market exposure during periods of transition. Financial advisers also like ETFs because they are tax efficient, easy to trade and relatively cheap.

 

ETFs that track domestic stock indexes come with expense ratios between 0.09% and 0.5% of assets. By comparison, the average indexed mutual fund and stock fund have expense ratios of 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively, according to Lipper.

 

For example, sales at San Francisco’s Barclays Global Investors, which runs $8.63 billion in 60 domestic-stock ETFs, are split evenly between institutional investors and financial advisers, says Lee Kranefuss, CEO of its individual investor group.

 

“Almost everyone has heard of ETFs,” Mr. Kranefuss says of the adviser market. “There’s a smaller group that knows the ins and outs and has used them. That group tends to be the more experienced managers, the ones that are doing higher average account balances.”

 

Consider Michael Chasnoff, president of Advanced Capital Strategies, an investment adviser in Cincinnati with about $200 million under management. Late last year, Mr. Chasnoff moved about $5 million in client assets out of a small-cap mutual fund and into an ETF in the same asset class. What was his reason? The mutual fund, which posted a loss for the year, was about to make a significant capital gains distribution. By switching to an ETF, he was able harvest the losses for his clients and avoid additional income recognition.

 

“We really haven’t bought many of the non-listed mutual fund indexes in quite a while now,” says Mr. Chasnoff, who began using ETFs in early 1999. “We really think the exchange-traded fund is the superior class of  indexing.”

 

Ram Kolluri, president and chief investment officer of GlobalValue Investors Inc. in Princeton, N.J., puts about one-third of his clients’ assets into ETFs, particularly those that track the S&P 500. The rest is in-vested in portfolios of growth stocks that he manages.

 

“By putting some money in ETFs as a core holding, I get a very nice hedge,” he says. “It’s the perfect vehicle for buying and holding for the long  term.”

 

Last year, Mr. Kolluri’s portfolio dropped about 15% versus a 21% drop for the S&P 500/Barra Growth Index, he says.

 

Despite the sudden popularity of ETFs, most mutual fund companies aren’t worried about them — at least publicly. The No. 1. player, Boston’s Fidelity Investments, says it has no plans to launch any ETFs of its own. Neither does Boston-based Putnam Investments, which is ranked No. 4 in terms of assets.

 

VANGUARD ON DECK

 

The Vanguard Group, the No. 2 fund company and a leading seller of index mutual funds, isn’t taking any chances. By early summer, the Malvern, Pa., company expects to launch five ETFs, to be called Vipers. Those exchange-traded funds will be modeled after existing index funds. “It’s a way of luring the short-term investors out of our traditional shares classes,” says spokesman John Woerth. “It insulates our long-term shareholders from the effects of short-term trading.”

 

But doesn’t it also insulate Vanguard from the siphoning of assets from index funds into ETFs? “I wouldn’t argue with that,” Mr. Woerth adds. Chicago’s John Nuveen Co. announced plans in October to launch its first stock ETF and three months later said it would come out with the first ETFs indexed to track Treasury indexes. Barclays Global Investments is also developing fixed-income ETFs as well as making plans to launch another 20 domestic-stock ETFs this year.

 

Still, ETFs are not for everyone. Those who invest a relatively small amount of money — say $200 — each month are better off sticking to mutual funds. That’s because, like stocks, ETFs come with commissions that can make it expensive to get in and out.

 

Concentration can also be an issue. The overwhelming majority are quite small, which raises the question of their long-term viability. Just two groups of funds — the Spiders, managed by Boston’s State Street Global Advisors, and the Nasdaq 100 Index Shares, run by Bank of New York Co. Inc. — represent 62% of assets.