News Release

Study Finds Rising Long-Term Care Costs, Demographics Will Make "Aging in Place" Harder Than Boomers Think

Washington, D.C. (April 26, 2000) - A new study by the American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI) finds that the chances they'll end their lives in a nursing home are far higher than most Baby Boomers imagine - and that middle income families are at the greatest risk.

"Middle income Baby Boomers will find that to successfully age 'in place' - that is, in their homes or in the home-like setting of an assisted living facility - they will have to use their retirement savings to pay for increasingly expensive long-term care services," says Barbara Stucki, Ph.D., primary author of the ACLI study Can Aging Baby Boomers Avoid the Nursing Home? "Without private long-term care insurance, many will face potentially catastrophic costs that could lead to impoverishment and the need to use Medicaid-funded nursing home care."

ACLI's new study projects that the costs of long-term care services will more than quadruple by 2030:

Can Aging Baby Boomers Avoid the Nursing Home? projects that by 2030, total national expenditures for home- and community-based long-term care will more than quadruple, from $41 billion today to $193 billion. ACLI's companion study Who Will Pay for the Baby Boomers' Long-Term Care Needs? projects that total national expenditures for nursing home care could reach $330 billion - equal to today's entire Social Security budget.

These findings "illustrate the importance of taking personal responsibility for your financial future and for your future long-term care needs," Stucki said. "We found that about half of long-term care policyholders currently receiving benefits report they would have to move to a nursing home without their insurance benefits. And more than 70 percent report that their long-term care insurance policy pays all of the costs of the services they need. And that goes a long way toward reducing the financial and emotional burden on family caregivers."

Significantly, the new ACLI study found that when they retire, Boomers will have less family caregiving support to rely on. They typically have had fewer children than previous generations and one in five Boomer women have no children at all. High divorce rates among Boomers are likely to take a toll as well, because divorced parents are less likely to receive caregiving assistance from their adult children than widowed parents.

"Without adequate family support, older Americans' need for paid long-term care services increases the risk that they will impoverish themselves while living in the community," Stucki said. "Those costs can be prohibitive. When they run out of funds, middle income elders must turn to government programs, which primarily provide institutional nursing home care. A long-term care insurance policy can help ensure those caregiving costs don't deprive you of the ability to decide where and how you will live your final years.

"Because government programs are biased toward nursing home care, if you rely on government help, the nursing home is where you're likely to end up," Stucki said. "That's ironic, given that one government study says half of the people in nursing homes don't need that kind of intensive care, and could have maintained their independence if they received long-term care services at home."

While the financial benefits to individual policyholders are obvious, the benefits to government - and future taxpayers - of wider purchase of private long-term care insurance are substantial, the new ACLI study shows. Medicaid's annual nursing home expenditures are projected to skyrocket from today's $29 billion to $134 billion by 2030 - an increase of 360 percent. ACLI's research indicates that by paying policyholders' nursing home costs - and by keeping policyholders out of nursing homes by paying for home- and community-based services, private long-term care insurance could reduce Medicaid's institutional care expenditures by $40 billion a year, or about 30 percent.

In addition, the ACLI study found that wider purchase of long-term care insurance could increase general tax revenues by $8 billion per year, because of the number of family caregivers who would remain at work. Today, 31 percent of caregivers quit work to care for an older person; nearly two-thirds have to cut back their work schedules; more than a quarter take leaves of absence, and 10 percent turn down promotions because of their caregiving responsibilities. It costs the typical working caregiver about $109 per day in lost wages and health benefits to provide full-time care at home - which is almost as much as the cost of nursing home care.

"When the youngest Boomers reach age 65 in 2030, the nation's elderly population will double to 70 million and the number of severely impaired elders at risk of needing nursing home care could double to six million," Stucki said. "Because Baby Boomers are expected to live longer than any preceding generation, the likelihood that they will need nursing home and other long-term care services will only increase. The duration of those impairments is also likely to increase as life expectancy rises, as will the risk of outliving one's retirement assets.

"At greatest risk for nursing home placement will be middle income elders unable to afford long-term care services that promote aging in place - that is, in the home or the community," Stucki said. "Aging Baby Boomers who plan ahead for their long-term care needs can potentially postpone or avoid institutionalization. Private long-term care insurance can ensure choice, dignity and security for middle income Americans who want to age in place."

 

The American Council of Life Insurers is a Washington, D.C.-based trade association. Its nearly 500 companies offer life insurance, annuities, pensions, long-term care insurance, disability income insurance and other retirement and financial protection products. ACLI member companies have 88 percent of the long-term care insurance in force in the United States.